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India plans to raise refining capacity by 77 percent by 2030

Refiners in India, the world’s third-biggest oil consumer and importer, have drawn up plans to raise their capacity by 77 percent to about 8.8 MMbpd by 2030 to meet the country’s rising fuel demand.

India’s refining expansion plan will ensure the nation’s surplus production of diesel and gasoline will last till 2035, according to a report prepared and released by the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas.

India is emerging as one of the key global drivers for refined fuels consumption as its economic expansion and rising industrial activity yields infrastructure improvements and increased energy access for commercial and retail consumers.

If current patterns of use continue, India’s fuel demand could rise to as much as 335 million tonnes by 2030, and 472 million tonnes by 2040, from about 194 million tonnes last year, the oil ministry’s report says.

On the basis of expansion plans submitted by refiners to the government, gasoline production will remain in surplus up to 2035, turning into a deficit in 2040, according to the report.

A spokesman for the oil ministry declined to discuss the report further when contacted by phone.

Diesel will remain in surplus until about 2035, beyond which domestic demand will overtake supply, the report said.

The report also forecast a growth of 5 percent or more each year in India’s gasoline, diesel and jet fuel demand to 2030.

The report recommended the refiners set up petrochemical projects and cut production of petcoke and fuel oil.

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